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Release time: 14/12/2021-02:42 Modification time: 14/12/2021-02:40

Tripoli (AFP)-Libya will hold its first ever presidential election later next week, but due to the lack of a final candidate list and fierce political differences, people doubt whether the election will be held.

The poll is scheduled to take place on December 24 and is intended to mark a transition to peace, but many people are now worried that this may reignite civil war.

“Given the deep social and political fault lines, elections may do more harm than good in Libya,” said former UN Deputy Secretary-General Jamal Benomar.

"The necessary conditions for free and fair elections are not met. Libyans are too divided to accept or agree with the results of the election."

The elections are part of the UN-led peace process and took place after a relatively quiet year in October 2020 after the landmark ceasefire between the East and West camps.

A transitional government took office in March and led the oil-rich North African country into public opinion polls.

But despite its high hopes for peace, since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising overthrew and killed Muammar Gaddafi, the United Nations has struggled to overcome the deep and complex divisions left by ten years of fighting and foreign intervention.

Benomar, chairman of the think tank of the International Dialogue Initiative Center, warned that fragmented state institutions and lack of "unified or legal" security forces are destabilizing the country.

Because a series of armed groups dominate the area, few believe that voters will be able to vote freely.

Approximately 2.5 million voter registration cards have been collected, but apart from posting posters urging other Libyans to do the same, there are few signs that voting is about to be held in Tripoli, the coastal capital.

Since the electoral authorities have not announced the final list of candidates, the campaign has not officially started, although some hopeful people are promoting themselves on social media.

The election took place after months of fierce debate. There were several divided figures in the campaign regarding its legal basis and who might have a firm foothold.

The most controversial of these is Khalifa Haftar, the military chief who controls most of the eastern and southern parts of Libya.

After a year-long but ultimately failed attack on Tripoli in 2019-2020, he was despised in the west of the country.

His ally, Speaker of Parliament Aguila Saleh (Aguila Saleh) signed a controversial election law that made his candidacy possible, a process that rivals claim to bypass due process.

But for some, the candidacy of his rival Saif Islam Gaddafi is also problematic.

As the son of an overthrown dictator who ruled Libya with an iron fist for four years, Saif Islam has been accused of war crimes by many people, including prosecutors at the International Criminal Court.

Anas Gomati, director of the Sadik Institute, a Libyan think tank, said that "elections under these legal and political conditions will almost certainly undermine the stability of Libya."

He told AFP: “The election victory of Saif or Haftar will bring war to those who opposed Gaddafi or Haftar’s attack on Tripoli in 2019.”

Even the Interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah (Abdulhamid Dbeibah), who is the tycoon who leads the transitional government in Tripoli, faces allegations that his candidacy is illegal.

After months of legal battles, “no matter who wins, there is a risk that the loser will weaken the winner and say that the election is constitutionally invalid,” said Peter Millett, the former British ambassador to Libya.

As if these complexities were not enough, the UN Special Envoy for Libya, Jan Kubis, resigned a month before the vote.

A New York diplomat who asked not to be named stated that Kubis’ insistence on holding a poll on December 24 led to a “breakdown” in his relationship with Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Guterres doubted whether the conditions were ripe.

Kubis even admitted to the controversial September election law. Amanda Kadlec, a former member of the UN Panel of Experts on Libya, said this was “one of the major criticisms of his tenure”.

To avoid a vacuum, Guterres appointed American diplomat Stephanie Williams (Stephanie Williams) as his "special adviser", who had served as the acting director of the United Nations delegation to Libya.

According to Gomati, the Speaker of the Parliament Saleh also changed the election timetable to postpone the legislative poll. Even if his ally Haftar will lose the presidential vote, he is still in charge of the eastern parliament.

However, despite the dangers of holding a vote, experts warn that delaying the vote also brings risks.

Kadlec said that if Dbeibah stays in place without voting, his eastern rivals can once again create their own government to compete with his government.

Millit believes that "regardless of whether the election is held as scheduled, Libya will have a train collision on December 25."

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